US. Pasture and Range Conditions. Click to enlarge image.

With the summer crop season winding down at a rapid pace, the agricultural weather focus is turning to winter wheat.  In the hard red winter wheat belt of the Great Plains, wheat planting got off to a slow start due to extremely dry conditions.  By September 9 , planting was behind the five-year average pace in all seven major production states on the Plains, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Planting progress was more than five percentage points behind the average in Colorado (0% planted versus the average of 13%), Nebraska (8 vs. 16%), and South Dakota (8 vs. 14%).   Ongoing drought across the nation’s mid-section is also reflected by current rangeland and pasture conditions.  On September 9, nearly all (97%) of the rangeland and pastures were rated very poor to poor in Nebraska, along with 92% in Missouri, 89% in Kansas, 87% in Colorado, and 86% in New Mexico.  Farther east, however, pastures have improved with recent rainfall.  Most notably, pastures in Illinois were rated 59% very poor to poor on September 9, a significant improvement from 72% a week ago and 90% on August 26. Read more »

Isaac's impacts: Locally heavy rains and strong winds from the Gulf Coast region to the corn belt.

Visit www.usda.gov/drought for the latest information regarding USDA’s Drought Disaster response and assistance.

Hurricane Isaac moved ashore early Wednesday, August 29, in southeastern Louisiana with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph.  Once inland, the storm steadily weakened, losing its tropical characteristics over Missouri on Saturday, September 1.  Nevertheless, Isaac’s remnant circulation continued to drift across the eastern Corn Belt during the Labor Day weekend, generating locally heavy showers from the lower Midwest into the mid-Atlantic region.   Storm-total rainfall reached 10 to 20 inches in the central Gulf Coast region, while some drought-affected areas in Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois received in excess of 4 inches.  In the Mid-South and lower Midwest, positive effects of Isaac’s rainfall included replenishment of soil moisture in preparation for the soft red winter wheat planting season and starting the process of pasture recovery. Read more »

Isaac's Impacts: Model Forecasted Rainfall, August 31, 2012. Click to enlarge image.

Visit www.usda.gov/drought for the latest information regarding USDA’s Drought Disaster response and assistance.

Hurricane Isaac has grabbed most of the weather headlines in recent days, but drought remains deeply entrenched across nearly two-thirds of the continental United States.  According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, dated August 28, drought covered 62.9% of the Lower 48 states, down only slightly from a peak of 63.9% on July 24.  However, during the five-week period from July 24 to August 28, the portion of the country in exceptional drought (D4) increased from 2.4 to 6.0%. Read more »

One of the most frequent questions I receive at the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is, “How can we accurately forecast agricultural production?” After all, anyone in the agriculture industry knows that regardless of how accurate you are, every year the weather can wreak havoc on any forecasts. This is why NASS doesn’t simply rely on formulas when we prepare our forecasts. Our data incorporate input from hundreds of thousands of farmers and ranchers across the United States.

The past few years have given us a great opportunity to highlight the importance of farmer surveys. Last year, producers were battered by some of the most significant floods on record, which were followed by a summer that broke several heat records. Although many crops were affected, one result was that U.S. growers produced significantly less wheat. North Dakota farmers, the nation’s leading Durum wheat growers, planted a record-low number of acres in 2011. If farmers themselves didn’t report this information to us, there would be no other way NASS could accurately estimate the results of such an unusual year. Read more »

NIFA-funded grad student checks soil moisture gauge.

This post is part of the Science Tuesday feature series on the USDA blog. Check back each week as we showcase stories and news from USDA’s rich science and research profile.

Over the past decade, we’ve seen a lot of variability in the weather, with severe droughts in some places, excessive flooding in others, and more extreme weather events all over the country.  While there has always been variability in the weather, scientists predict increasing variability in weather patterns as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) increases in the atmosphere. Such changes present challenges for farmers, who, in many areas, are trying to grow crops under hotter, drier climate regimes and must protect their crops from damage during extreme weather events.  That’s why the USDA is actively doing research on how to produce crops and livestock through increasing climate variability, and that’s why the fourth in a series of Office of the Chief Scientist white papers on the Department’s research portfolio is focused on what USDA science is doing to help prepare the agency, and the nation’s farmers for a changing climate. Read more »

Tropical Storm Isaac - August 27, 2012 as of 2pm EDT. Click to enlarge image.

Visit www.usda.gov/drought for the latest information regarding USDA’s Drought Disaster response and assistance.

In recent days, some of the weather focus has shifted from drought to the tropics. Indeed, Tropical Storm Isaac is bearing down on the central Gulf Coast of the United States, and hurricane warnings have been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Destin, Florida.  According to the National Hurricane Center, a coastal storm surge of 6 to 12 feet can be expected in southeastern Louisiana and southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi, along and just east of Isaac’s expected path.  On its present course, Isaac should reach the central Gulf Coast late Tuesday.  The NHC indicates that further strengthening can be expected prior to landfall, and Isaac should reach the coast as a Category 1 hurricane – with sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph.  Another threat related to Isaac will be flooding rains.  Rainfall has already topped 10 inches in parts of southeastern Florida, where locally heavy squalls persist.  In the central Gulf Coast region, widespread 6- to 12-inch totals are forecast, with isolated amounts near 18 inches possible.  Crops potentially in the path of Isaac include cotton and sugarcane.  By August 26, cotton bolls open in the Delta States ranged from 32% in Missouri to 61% in Louisiana.  Cotton in the open-boll stage of development is especially vulnerable to damage when high winds and heavy rain occur.  In Louisiana, more than one-quarter (28%) of the new sugarcane crop had been planted by August 19.  Many other crops, including unharvested corn, rice, and soybeans, could be susceptible to lodging (i.e. being flattened or blown over) or quality degradation due to Isaac’s effects. Read more »